A long-standing water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, called the Indus Waters Treaty, is now at the center of a serious dispute. India recently announced that it would put the treaty “on hold”, which has raised alarm in Pakistan. In response, Pakistan has taken the matter to the United Nations and other international forums, warning that India’s decision could jeopardize water supply, destabilize regional peace, and set a dangerous precedent for other international water agreements.
At a UN-related policy meeting this month, Pakistan described the situation as an “unprecedented crisis”. Pakistani officials accused India of using water as a political tool rather than as a shared resource, saying this threatens not only Pakistan’s water security but also the stability of South Asia.
Experts note that the Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, has been one of the most successful examples of international water cooperation, surviving multiple wars and conflicts between the two countries. Putting it in abeyance could have serious consequences, including agricultural losses, reduced electricity generation, and tension over shared rivers.
Some analysts fear that this move might also weaken global water-sharing agreements, as countries worldwide often look to the Indus Waters Treaty as a model for resolving disputes over shared rivers. Diplomatic efforts are now underway to prevent the situation from escalating, with calls for dialogue and international mediation to ensure that water continues to be treated as a shared, life-sustaining resource rather than a weapon of conflict.
A Treaty That Survived Wars
The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 with the help of the World Bank. It was an agreement between India and Pakistan on how to share the rivers of the Indus Basin.
Under the treaty:
- Eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej – were allocated mainly to India.
- Western rivers – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – were allocated mainly to Pakistan.
The treaty also set up systems for cooperation, including:
- Sharing river data to monitor water flow.
- Regular inspections to ensure compliance.
- Mechanisms to resolve disputes peacefully without going to war.
What makes this treaty remarkable is that it continued to work even during wars between India and Pakistan in 1965, 1971, and 1999. Despite tensions, both countries respected the agreement, which helped prevent conflict over water.
For over 60 years, the Indus Waters Treaty has been considered one of the strongest and most successful water-sharing agreements in the world. It shows that even countries with serious political conflicts can cooperate when it comes to critical resources like water.
Today, the treaty is still important because it helps both nations manage water during floods and droughts, supports agriculture, and ensures long-term cooperation in the region.
The 2025 Turning Point
The crisis started in April 2025, when a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, killed 26 civilians. India blamed groups based in Pakistan for carrying out the attack.
Soon after, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security announced that the Indus Waters Treaty the agreement governing the sharing of rivers between India and Pakistan would be put on hold immediately. The Ministry of External Affairs said the treaty would remain inactive until Pakistan stopped supporting terrorism across the border in a clear and irreversible way.
Indian officials explained that the treaty worked only if there was goodwill between the two countries. Since recent security threats had destroyed that trust, they said India would now manage the western rivers according to its own sovereign rights.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly supported this decision, describing it as a strong and necessary response to terrorism.
Analysts noted that this marked a major shift in India’s approach to Pakistan. While the treaty had long been a symbol of cooperation despite political tensions, the 2025 decision signaled that security concerns could now outweigh long-standing water-sharing agreements. Experts also warned that putting the treaty on hold could affect water availability in both countries, with potential impacts on farming, energy production, and livelihoods in regions dependent on these rivers.
This turning point highlighted how security and diplomacy are deeply connected, and it raised questions about how future disputes over natural resources might be handled in South Asia.
Pakistan Raises the Issue on the Global Stage
Pakistan reacted strongly to India’s decision and quickly brought the matter to international attention.
At the Global Water Bankruptcy Policy Roundtable, co-hosted by Canada and the United Nations University, Pakistan’s Permanent Representative, Ambassador Usman Jadoon, warned that India’s move had created an unprecedented crisis for Pakistan’s water security and could threaten regional stability. He emphasized, “Water must not be used as a weapon.”
Speaking to the European Union, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar described the situation as a serious threat to peace in South Asia and called India’s action illegal under international law.
Pakistani officials also highlighted that the Indus Waters Treaty the key agreement governing water sharing between the two countries does not allow one side to suspend it unilaterally. They argued that the term “abeyance” has no legal meaning in the context of international treaties, meaning India cannot simply put the treaty on hold.
Furthermore, Pakistan urged the international community, including the United Nations, to step in and ensure that water disputes are resolved peacefully. They stressed that any disruption to the treaty could have serious consequences for millions of people who rely on the Indus River system for drinking water, irrigation, and agriculture.
Pakistan also called for dialogue and negotiation rather than unilateral actions, warning that escalating the issue could affect economic stability and cooperation in South Asia.
Legal Battle and the Role of International Courts
When tensions arose over the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan decided to use the treaty’s legal mechanisms to resolve the dispute.
The treaty itself provides specific ways to handle disagreements:
- Neutral experts – independent specialists who examine the issue and provide recommendations.
- Arbitration at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague – an international court where countries can settle treaty disputes.
In mid-2025, the PCA confirmed that it had the authority to hear the case. It also stated that the treaty could not be suspended by one country alone.
Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters, Syed Muhammad Mehar Ali Shah, emphasized:
“There is no concept of abeyance in this treaty or in international law. The treaty remains binding on both countries.”
Pakistan’s position is based on the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which says a country cannot pause or ignore a treaty unless the treaty itself allows it or both countries agree. Since the Indus Waters Treaty does not have such a clause, Pakistan argues that it remains fully in force.
On the other hand, India rejects the involvement of third-party courts, claiming the issue is political and should be handled directly between the two countries. India maintains that the treaty is bilateral and should be resolved through dialogue rather than legal arbitration.
The situation highlights a broader point: treaty disputes often involve both legal and political dimensions. While international courts can provide legal clarity, the effectiveness of their decisions depends on whether countries are willing to respect and implement them. In this case, the PCA’s ruling reinforces Pakistan’s view that the treaty cannot be ignored, but its impact will ultimately depend on how India responds.
Timeline of the Crisis
- April 22, 2025 – Terror attack in Pahalgam
- April 23–24, 2025 – India announces treaty abeyance
- May–August 2025 – Pakistan files legal cases; PCA affirms competence
- Late 2025 – Pakistan raises issue at UN and international forums
- January 2026 – Pakistan warns of global water treaty risks
Water Data and Flow Disruptions
Pakistan says that India has stopped sharing important water information, like river flows, floods, and dam operations, which they are supposed to under a treaty.
Because of this:
- The water flowing downstream has become unpredictable.
- Flood warning systems don’t work as well.
- Planning for crops and managing hydropower is harder.
Pakistan’s water authority warned that water shortages during the crop season could reach 20% or more, which could hurt food production and rural livelihoods.
With climate change causing glaciers to melt and droughts to become more common, Pakistan says this situation is especially risky right now.
Why the World Is Watching
Experts say this isn’t just a problem for South Asia.
The Indus Waters Treaty is usually seen as a good example of how countries can share rivers even when they don’t get along. If a country decides to ignore the treaty for political reasons, it could make other countries lose trust in similar agreements in places like Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
Water law experts warn that this might encourage other countries to break water-sharing treaties during conflicts, which would weaken decades of international cooperation.
Links to Environmental and Domestic Law Debates
This issue is also linked to bigger discussions about environmental rules in India.
Indian courts, including the Supreme Court, have recently become stricter about protecting the environment in cases involving rivers, groundwater, and the Aravalli hills. In earlier decisions about the Aravallis, the court emphasized the need for sustainable water use and cooperation between states.
Experts say that if the government tries to change river control policies in the future, the courts may review these changes, especially if they could harm the environment or affect people downstream.
Possible Future Scenarios for the Indus Waters Treaty
Several paths could unfold in the coming months or years:
1. Legal Action
Pakistan might take stronger legal steps, approaching the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), the United Nations, or the World Bank to pressure India into following the treaty properly. This could lead to formal hearings, rulings, or international involvement in resolving the dispute.
2. Political Negotiation
Talks between India and Pakistan could restart if the security situation improves or if global pressure mounts. Diplomatic engagement could help both sides find solutions, restore trust, and keep the treaty alive.
3. Treaty Breakdown
If the current pause or neglect continues, the systems of cooperation under the treaty could collapse. This would affect:
- Dams and reservoirs – crucial for storing water for irrigation and cities.
- Irrigation channels – which feed farms and food production.
- Flood control systems – leaving people and farmland vulnerable to seasonal floods.
- Climate adaptation projects – joint efforts to manage water in the face of climate change could fail.
Experts warn that millions of people could face water shortages, and both agriculture and urban water supplies could be disrupted. Joint infrastructure projects, such as new hydropower plants or shared canals, might be abandoned or delayed indefinitely.
A Dangerous Global Precedent
Analysts also point out that this dispute could have broader implications worldwide. If two countries allow security concerns to override a water-sharing treaty, other nations may follow the same pattern. Water one of the most essential resources could become a trigger for future conflicts, not just borders or territory.
One international observer said:
“If water treaties fail, future wars may not be fought only over land but over rivers, lakes, and essential water resources.”
The Indus Waters Treaty, which has lasted over 60 years and survived wars and political tensions, is now at its most fragile point. Its fate will influence not only India and Pakistan but also how countries worldwide handle shared natural resources.
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